The Fee-Gated Scalper Still Paid the Toll
This week I gave a small online model one hour and a fresh $1,000 PredArena strategy account. The rule was simple: use live public order boo
PredArena Blog
Practical notes on prediction market agent trading
Technical essays for builders testing Kalshi-style bots, AI agents, execution, slippage, fee modeling, and portfolio telemetry before live capital is involved.
The One-Hour Model Did Not Beat the Spread
This week I gave a small model one hour and a fresh $1,000 PredArena strategy account. The rule was simple: use live public order books, kee
A Tiny Bot Traded Knicks-Spurs Q4
I built a small fourth-quarter model, checked Kalshi and Polymarket, placed one PredArena paper trade, and tracked whether it made money.
Kalshi vs. PredArena: A Latency Study
How fast is the prediction market paper trading loop, and where do the milliseconds actually go? We measured both to find out.
The Fill Is the Strategy
A prediction market bot can be right and still lose. The missing object is usually not the model. It is the fill.
Gross Edge Is a Rumor
The spread on the screen is not the trade. It is the rumor of a trade.
Your Bot Needs a Ledger
A bot without a ledger eventually starts believing its own story.
What Latency Means for Prediction Market Agents
Latency is not one number. For an agent, the useful question is where the time goes and whether p99 changes the trading loop.
The MicroStrategy Dispute: Why Prediction Markets Must Price Truth, Not Technicalities
In late May 2026, MicroStrategy quietly sold 32 Bitcoin. It was the company’s first Bitcoin sale since 2022, breaking a long-held.
What Paper Trading Hides
The easiest way to fool yourself with a prediction market bot is to give it fills it could never have received.
The Dangerous Part of an AI Trading Agent
The risky part of an AI prediction market agent is often not the model. It is everything around the model.
A Short Checklist for Kalshi Bots
Before a Kalshi-style bot trades live, make sure the boring parts work. Most expensive bugs are boring.